TIMES SERIES MODELING FOR ELECTRICAL ENERGY DEMAND AND CONSUMPTION AT THE SANTA MÔNICA CAMPUS OF THE FEDERAL UNIVERSITY OF UBERLÂNDIA

Abstract

In view of the relevance of electric energy to modern societies and the need to raise awareness about the rational use of this resource, Higher Education Institutions (HEIs)
represent an important instance, considering both its training function and the application of management focused on energy efficiency. In this sense, the objective of this work was to characterize the use of electric energy in the Santa Mônica campus of the Federal University of Uberlândia (UFU), based on the records of power demand (kW) and electricity consumption (kWh) (HP) and off-peak time (HFP), describing its components, and calculating predictions for subsequent periods through seriesadjusted models. The analysis allowed to identify, in the series, the presence of the components, trend and seasonality, associated to the structural issues for trend and related to the academic calendars for the seasonality. The adjusted models for all series were the Holt-Winters Additive, which presented a good suitability considering the results obtained for their measures of adjustments R2 and Average Absolute Percent Error (MAPE) and for the validation of their predictions. The aim of this study is to provide guidelines for improving the management of electric energy use at UFU/Campus Santa Mônica, contributing to energy efficiency and the rational use of energy resources.