INFLUENCE OF FACTORS ON CROSS-BORDER CAPITAL FLOWS FROM AND TO EMERGING COUNTRIES: CASE STUDY OF RUSSIA

Resumo

Objective: The purpose of the study was identification of factors affecting the participation of the Russian Federation as an emerging country in cross-border capital flows in 2004"“2020. Methods: The authors conducted regression analysis of factors affecting the participation of the Russian Federation in the cross-border movement of capital (direct investment to/from Russia, the inflow of portfolio investment into the Russian economy, volumes of capital outflow from Russia) with the inclusion of lagged variables in the regression equations to eliminate the autocorrelation of the results. Results: The influence of factors on the participation of the Russian Federation in the cross-country movement of capital is in line with the dependencies that are relevant for emerging markets, however, with the need to take into account the impact of international political tension. To reduce risks in the sphere of cross-country capital movement, one must implement measures to gradually decouple the Russian economy from the raw material component, in combination with measures to respond to foreign political market tensions. When developing public policy measures, one should also consider aspects of capital flight, which require, one way or another, further development of control and state regulation of capital flows. Conclusion: Taking into account the identified factors will make it possible to justify the use of innovative and other measures and instruments of state policy in the field of ensuring the interests of Russia's participation in the international movement of capital. The article is the first comprehensive empirical study of the factors affecting the participation of the Russian Federation as an emerging country in cross-border capital flows, covering in the analysis the period including the 2010s when there were fundamental changes in the framework of external risks to the national economy traditionally considered among the leading determinants of cross-border capital flows to/from emerging markets.